Archive for

December 2010

'The Quants' by Scott Patterson

[Cross-posting latest book summary I added to LinkedIn.]

The Quants (http://www.amzn.com/B0036894XC) is a survey of the growth of math-based modeling in financial services and its impact on profit making and crisis generation.  The author is a reporter with the Wall Street Journal and he mostly tells his story from the perspective of some younger quants (two running hedge funds and two working within Wall Street investment banks) as well as two 'pioneers' in the field - Ed Thorp and Jim Simons.

The book is a quick read and the extensive direct access Scott Patterson had to many of these players as well as his interviews with other people such as Benoit Mandelbrot provided a personal dimension to the tale.  The Quants overlapped somewhat in scope with The Myth of the Rational Market (http://www.amzn.com/0060598999) by Justin Fox which I had read earlier this year.  That book, which I preferred, charted a more rigorous focus on the development of Finance theory in the 20th century but offered less of the day to day impact on Wall Street.  Due to timing, it also did not really cover the most recent financial crisis whereas Patterson's story ends in 2009 as the pieces were being put back together and lessons were trying to be learned.

In that respect, it's hard to dispute that the quants over-reliance on the accuracy of financial models which undervalued risk coupled with the 'industrialization' of computer-based trading were an important contributing factor to the start of the crisis.  However, they were certainly joined by lots of other bad policies, strategies and actors in the full realization of the crisis.

This is the first book by the author and it shows.  While it's breezy writing does make it a fast read, parts of the book seem a bit cobbled together with repetitions from earlier parts and Patterson's somewhat breathless style and overwrought figurative language were more annoying than helpful to me and temper my recommendation.

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'Last Call' by Daniel Okrent

[Cross-posting latest book summary I put out on LinkedIn.]

Last Call (http://www.amzn.com/0743277023) is quite a fascinating tale of social and political history in the United States.  The path to Prohibition and the sorry 14 year life of the only constitutional amendment to ever be repealed had many more twists, unexpected alliances and unintended consequences than I ever imagined.

Daniel Okrent starts out with some background on the prodigious drinking habits of the country during the 19th century, which in turn led to a temperance movement that had a sensible core desire to combat the negative social effects of these habits and often overlapped in philosophy and leadership with other "progressive" religious/social movements of the time such as slavery abolition and women's rights.

However, the altruistic motives of temperance became much more convoluted moving into the 20th century as the movement weaved itself into the many other battles engendered by rapid industrialization, extensive immigration, growing urbanization and unresolved racial/ethnic tensions then present in the country.  Among other things, the aim of the temperance leadership - primarily the Anti-Saloon League or ASL by then - became legal prohibition rather than moderation advocacy which ultimately set the path to the 18th Amendment.  This amendment only really became possible with the passage of the 16th Amendment, as the income tax provided an alternate means of revenue for the federal government to potentially replace the very high amount of revenue it obtained from the alcohol excise tax.  

No matter how one might view the wisdom or motives of Prohibition as it began in 1920, it's outcome was dreadful.  It did not truly represent the will of the majority of the country due to some representation quirks in state and federal legislatures and its enforcement was chronically underfunded from the start.  So, drinking moderated somewhat but criminal activity rose unmoderately.  The specifics of the Volstead Act, which provided the legislative structure for the 18th Amendment, also provided a few interesting exemptions which both influenced behavior and garnered some fortunes.  In the end, the organization of a much more coherent opposition to Prohibition (with as many strange bedfellows as the alliances which led to it) and the need for more jobs as the Depression lingered led to a surprisingly quick repeal process in 1933.

The most interesting person in the book is Wayne Wheeler, who effectively ran the ASL and devised the tactics of what we would call wedge politics today.  He used these tactics to great effect and was enormously influential in his time (he died in 1927) but is now on the wrong side of history and mostly forgotten.

Daniel Okrent did a great interview on EconTalk earlier this year (http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2010/06/okrent_on_prohi.html).  I would recommend it as either a supplement to reading the book or getting the gist of it in an hour.

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My Favorite Songs of 2010

Here's my personal list of favorite songs for this year in order by artist or group.

I restricted the list to 25 songs and to only one per recording  - which was especially hard when considering the overall excellent music from Arcade Fire, Deerhunter, Josh Ritter, Laura Veirs, LCD Soundsystem and Spoon.  It was also painful to not include a song from The New Pornographers, but I thought they put out their weakest effort to date (though I did like Crash Years and a few other tracks).


The List:

  *  Arcade Fire - We Used to Wait   [Great HTML5 video collaboration with Google on this song too]

  *  Ben Folds & Nick Hornby - From Above   [Love the out chorus at the end as well as the collaboration of a musician and a novelist]

  *  Broken Bells - The Ghost Inside

  *  Citizen Cope - Keep Askin'

  *  Corinne Bailey Rae - The Blackest Lily   

  *  Deerhunter - Desire Lines   [Final instrumental break sold me on this one over Helicopter]

  *  Gil Scott-Heron -  Me and the Devil   [I didn't think he was still recording until I heard this great funky song]

  *  Janelle Monáe - Tightrope   [impossibly catchy]

  *  John Legend & The Roots - Humanity (Love the Way It Should Be)   [Their updated cover of Wake Up Everybody was outstanding too]

  *  Josh Ritter - Rattling Locks   [This guy is really good; I don't listen to him enough]

  *  Junip - Always

  *  KT Tunstall - Fade Like a Shadow

  *  Laura Veirs - Make Something Good   [The most lovely song you will ever hear with 'steer manure' in the lyrics; Wide-Eyed, Legless is also amazing]

  *  LCD Soundsystem - You Wanted a Hit   [My particular favorite though Pow Pow is quite clever and humorous as the next track]

  *  Old 97's - Every Night is Friday Night (Without You)

  *  Sharon Jones & The Dap-Kings - Better Things   [I Learned the Hard Way is also a great song]

  *  Spoon - Nobody Gets Me But You    [A tough choice with so many fine songs but the beat and instrumental flourishes just rock]

  *  Stars - Fixed   [I became a big fan of this Canadian band this year, including some older songs]

  *  Sufjan Stevens - Vesuvius   [As always, he's musically dense and lyrically strange]

  *  The Black Keys - Howlin' for You

  *  The Concretes - Good Evening 

  *  The National - Bloodbuzz Ohio   [How can you not like a song with 'I was carried to Ohio with a swarm of bees' in its lyrics?]

  *  Tracey Thorn - Why Does the Wind?   [Very happy to hear her singing again after EBTG]

  *  Trombone Shorty - Hurricane Season 

  *  Yukon Blonde - Wind Blows

So, lots of outstanding new music in the first year of this decade from a diverse group of artists in both style and experience.  Despite all the whining from the traditional music industry about their economic state, it's very gratifying to listen to all this good work.

January 2011 Postscript
I would have seriously considered Money Grabber by Fitz and the Tantrums, Kontrol Phreak by Lyrics Born and O.N.E. by Yeasayer for the above list if I had listened to them as carefully as I've done recently - though I don't know what I would remove.  Also, Lost by KT Tunstall really is a beautiful song as well to complement the choice I made.

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